So if we wait around for a vaccine we're looking at 18 months mostly cooped up

[conuly]

Which is awful. Of course, other people are suggesting we say "Fuck it, let the geezers die" and just go back to "normal".

This is a terrible idea in many, many ways, but if I know one thing it is that there is no shortage of powerful people who like to promote terrible ideas. If the unthinkable happens and the awful plan ever gets put into place, about how long would it be until everybody was either immune or dead, do you think?

Comments

[conuly]

You don't understand exponential growth, do you? Have I told you about the invasive weed in the lake yet?

Picture a pristine lake. In the lake there is an invasive plant. This plant doubles in size every day. 40 days from today, the plant will cover the entire lake. On what day will the plant cover half the lake?

The answer is pretty simple: Day 39.

Here's the trickier question. I say "trickier", it really only requires halving and halving again. How many days did it take for the plant to cover 1% of the lake? It took 40 days to cover 100% of the lake, and 39 days to cover 50% of the lake, so how long did it take to cover just 1% of the lake?

The answer is 33. For one month the plant was so insignificant you could hardly see it, and then a week later it was, quite literally, everywhere.

If one person spreads it to three people, and it took 3 months to infect 10% of the population, then, if nothing changes, it will take nowhere near 30 months to infect everybody.