So if we wait around for a vaccine we're looking at 18 months mostly cooped up

[conuly]

Which is awful. Of course, other people are suggesting we say "Fuck it, let the geezers die" and just go back to "normal".

This is a terrible idea in many, many ways, but if I know one thing it is that there is no shortage of powerful people who like to promote terrible ideas. If the unthinkable happens and the awful plan ever gets put into place, about how long would it be until everybody was either immune or dead, do you think?

Comments

[8hyenas]

and also everyone who could afford to who'd wait 18 months for a vaccine. so the population it'd burn thru would be the poor and the ... stupid

[alexseanchai]

Longer than it'd take for me personally to get dead so I don't want to think about it.

What I want to know is, how do all these people think they're immortal and suffering-immune? I've read a few personal accounts of people who got comparatively mild cases. I gotta specify "comparatively" because the unmodified "mild" is woefully misleading! These people do not want to catch this themselves! Why don't they know that?

[shadowkat]

Yep, at least 18 months. OR they could figure out how to do more accurate testing, like China and South Korea did -- which allowed them to open up above and what Iceland is doing.

The trick is to know who has it and who doesn't. And also who is asymptomatic, who has had it and recovered, and whether anyone is immune - been exposed but not come down with it. Test the antibodies - and create a vaccine.

[lavendertook]

I knew back in February that we'd need to do this for at least a year and a half for there to be time to develop and do trials for a vaccine, or not do it at all. But we have liars, profiteers eugenicists/mass murderers for leaders who will not do anything for the public good unless forced in trade or violence. We've gotten what trade will produce so far.

[sixbeforelunch]

IDK, but I'm sure not planning on going back to "normal" life until there's a vaccine. I'm scared that I'm going to be forced to go back into the office too soon, and if that happens, I will have no choice but to go, but I'm certainly not going back to my usual shopping/eating out/socializing routines.

Do these people think that just because they declare the lockdown over, everyone will suddenly start going back to the stores and restaurants? I mean, some percentage of people will, but a good amount are going to continue to stay away no matter what, so it's not like the economy is just going to bounce right back to where it was.

[lightbird]

Yeah, until we have a vaccine there is always going to be the risk of this thing spiking out of control, and there are really smart, knowledgeable people working on this and trying to come up with a vaccine as quickly as possible, but realistically it's not going to be ready before 2021 and rolling it out is going to take time.

And, I mean, even if it is just older people that are dying from this "fuck it, let the geezers die" would be a terrible, terrible idea in so many ways. But it isn't just older people who are getting very sick, it isn't just older people the virus is killing.

Ugh, it really is awful, and made worse by the fact that we have such awful, monstrous people at the helm who want people to die.

[lightbird]

I gotta specify "comparatively" because the unmodified "mild" is woefully misleading!

Exactly. Based on accounts by some of the people who've had comparatively "mild" cases, people are still really sick with mild symptoms.

I don't know what some of these people are thinking. Maybe they do think they're immortal and suffering-immune, or maybe they think that they have enough money and power that if they get it they'll be able to buy access to treatment over everyone else.

[isis]

Test/Trace/Isolate is really what we need, yep. Likely to get more and faster testing before a vaccine, but the scale of testing the US needs is gonna be tough.

[hilarita]

If we all mask up and have a massive test and contact tracing program, then we can relax the lock down somewhat. That won't be enough for the most seriously at risk - they'll need to stay at home until there's a vaccine. And 18 months to 24 months would be pretty bloody speedy for that.

If you go down the whole "let them bloody die" route, I've no idea. Perhaps 6 months, provided you're OK with shovelling people into mass graves, plus a whole lot more associated deaths just caused by the fact that you've killed off a lot of your physicians (and other hospital staff). And you're OK with losing a lot of your working population (i.e. your cooks and cleaners and other "minions for posh people") either to death or to long-term or medium-term sickness, when it turns out that your lungs are deeply fucked up.

But that only works if there's no or very little reinfection. Otherwise, we just have rounds of death every 4-6 months (or whatever) when the immunity wears off.

But that relies on countries like the UK and US sorting out mask supply problems, and setting up a massive test and tracing program. (Preferably in a way that doesn't destroy privacy forever. There are legitimate concerns now, but there won't be forever.)

I'm assuming that with mild-moderate asthma, I want to stay at home if at all possible until there's a vaccine, because I'd like my lungs to keep on working as well as possible for as long as possible.

[redbird]

They probably are thinking that, but in this case that would mean priority access to a mechanical ventilator.

[conuly]

And the doctors.

[conuly]

They think they're going to get it and remain mostly asymptomatic throughout the duration, or perhaps have a mild cold. Which, fair, does seem to be something that some percentage of the population experiences.

[alexseanchai]

frankly mechanical ventilators sound like torture devices.

[alexseanchai]

not sure that's true. tweet thread from someone who works at a UK manufacturer that's pretty sickening to read. tl;dr when UK gov't asked manufacturers to make more ventilators, this company tried, and UK gov't did not actually want any.

[elf]

The media is reporting heavily on the chance of death, and reporting the numbers of people who've died. We aren't getting news reports about how many people were admitted to the hospital (and of course, we're not getting the slightest hint of reporting about what that costs), and we're not hearing about things like "chance of permanent lung damage" nor "three weeks in intensive care, unable to walk from bed to bathroom because you can't get enough air for that."

People think the disease is either "you are fairly healthy and you will be fine, just uncomfortable; it'll be like the flu" or "you will keel over dead the moment you're diagnosed."

Reading between the gaps of what's being reported: We don't know how long it lasts. I'm not hearing "for non-critical/mild cases, it's about 2-3 weeks of [symptoms]." I think people are mistaking the "two weeks' quarantine" for "it lasts two weeks" instead of "it takes no more than two weeks to hit."

Looking around: Mild cases seem to last 10-14 days. But I suspect people aren't thinking of quarantine as "2 weeks if you don't have it; a month of isolation if you do."

I get it; the media are trying hard to push "do this or else PEOPLE DIE!!!" but they've forgotten to cover "hey, if people don't die, they can still be pretty damn miserable, so... don't put yourself in that situation either."

(Also, mainstream news seems to assume people are compassionate and care about the health of their families and friends. In some communities, that's a "citation needed" situation; there's a number of people who think "God will protect the devout" so they don't need to take any precautions.)

[melannen]

I'm not sure why nobody's talking about the possibility of a treatment (I guess the quinine debacle has shut a lot of that down, sadly?) but I think there's a reasonable chance we'll find an effective antiviral before a vaccine makes it through testing. Especially since it's increasingly likely this virus won't make a great vaccine. (It'll help! But it won't stop it.)

Otherwise... yeah. Fast serology testing will help a lot, I think.

[elf]

From what I hear from the Serious Science side of things: Getting it should confer immunity; that's just how coronaviruses work. (And possibly viruses in general. If you recovered, it was presumably because you made antibodies that worked; they'll continue to work.) What's not clear is how long it takes to truly get over it, and whether the tests are prone to false negatives.

Also not clear: how long the immunity will last and whether it's total immunity or just a strong resistance.

Even more fun: Getting the "common cold" gives you immunity... from that strain. There are over 400 strains of "the common cold." Right now, as far as we know, there's one strain of COVID-19. But if it mutates, immunities may not transfer. Figuring out the likelihood there involves wading through both serious science articles and tons of med-flavored clickbait, and since I am not a serious med-science person, I'm not going to bother with the details.

quick guess based on only math and uncorroborated numbers

[starandrea]

Assuming 500,000 current coronavirus cases in the US, which is total identified cases minus deaths and recoveries (worldometers), and a US population of 328,000,000, we would only need 10 doublings to infect the entire population.

Further assuming a consistent doubling time of 6 days, suggested by current death rates (Our World in Data), we could infect everyone in the country in two months.

We could figure herd immunity helps decrease the doubling time at 60%, but that only takes off about a week with exponential growth, and we should probably add at least a month for the last people to develop symptoms and recover or die, making the total duration longer rather than shorter.

So maybe three months for the virus to run its course in the US if everyone just threw up their hands and ignored it.

ETA: To clarify, I'm not advocating this possibility in any way. I'm against it. I was just mathematically curious about the question, "If the unthinkable happens... how long?"

[lightbird]

I agree that there's more hope for getting an effective antiviral sooner than getting a vaccine.

From what I have read quinine may be helpful, but they just don't know for sure. There's been some indication of it but they need more evidence and more testing. Unfortunately Trump as usual just went ahead with it and pushed it despite the experts clarifying that it's a 'maybe' not a 'certainty' and that they need to do much more testing before they definitively declare it as an effective treatment.

[elf]

I live in a city with a bigger population than Iceland. Iceland has both per-capita resources and physical space to work with, that many larger countries don't.

China and South Korea both worked hard to identify infected people, not just those who turned up sick enough to get to a hospital. The whole US health care system works against that; there's dozens of articles and hundreds of anecdotal cases on social media of "This person has all the known symptoms, but... they're not getting tested, and their doctor said to isolate themselves." So of course, their family/friends/contacts aren't getting tested either, and aren't being told to isolate.

Aaaand we have churches insisting that the stay-at-home orders are unconstitutional and We Are Gonna Celebrate Easter Together, so... new wave of cases in about two weeks.

Re: quick guess based on only math and uncorroborated numbers

[elf]

I don't know if we'll get a doubling in 6 days, but there are several churches (in at least 8 states) that insisted on holding Easter services in person, so... gonna see more cases, especially in areas that don't have the funds and resources to do extensive testing.

[lightbird]

Yeah, the whole 'viruses mutate' concept doesn't seem to be getting taken into consideration.

[shadowkat]

So do I.

I live in New York City - it's population is roughly 12 million.

True. It's a whole lot easier to test in Iceland and South Korea than it is here. South Korea just sent us a bunch of tests by the way.

[sciatrix]

oh good, it's not just me who thinks so. especially unsedated/pumped full of anxiolytics, which are also experiencing shortages...

Re: quick guess based on only math and uncorroborated numbers

[conuly]

There is no way that there really are only half a million current cases in the US. I don't believe for one minute we've identified the majority of cases.