We are heading up on two years since the earliest identified case of COVID-19

[conuly]

What are the odds that we'll still be under pandemic conditions this time next year?

Comments

[pauamma]

Way too high for my peace of mind.

[frandroid]

In the U.S., with a 57% vax rate, you'll still be there for sure. Children getting vaccinated will make a huge difference though. In Canada, we're around 88/84% for one/two shots, I think with children vaccinated we'll be in a good place.

[dine]

I'm sadly feeling fairly positive that we won't - things might be better than now, but I'm guessing we won't be back to 'normal'

[rmc28]

The way the UK government is trying to pretend it's all over because we vaccinated a lot of adults, even while 1000 people a week are dying and hospitals are overwhelmed ... sadly high.

[muninnhuginn]

This. Unfortunately.

I'm not feeling much hope for anything like a "normal" Xmas either.

[rmc28]

Ironically, my family (spouse+kids) had discovered a year or two before the pandemic that the Xmas that works for us is to be quietly at home together, and no large gatherings or elaborate plans. So we are the weirdos for whom a lockdown Xmas makes not much difference.

It's the getting together in small groups throughout the year that we're finding much harder to do these days (travel, accom, ensuring everyone feels safe, calling things off because someone's caught covid, etc etc).

Getting my teenage child vaccinated has taken a huge weight off my mind. Now if only they'll roll it out to 5-11yos so the other child can get vaccinated before they catch it at school (which seems like it will inevitably happen sooner or later).

[alexseanchai]

*eyes the US right wing*

sky-high

[sabotabby]

I think we'll still have the pandemic but no pandemic conditions, and just the expectation that a lot more people will die and be disabled.

[readerjane]

Quite high, unfortunately, because... idjits.

But I'm hearing demi-grumbles from parents of small children who can't get immediate appointments to vaccinate their kids because a) they don't want to lose another minute, but b) that means lots of parents *are* getting immediate appointments.

[malada]

100%

We need to vax the world, you know.

-m

[the_siobhan]

We'll still be in a pandemic, but being forced to act as if we're not.

[melannen]

Unless we get a new variant that we can't vaccinate against and doesn't share immunity with the others, I would guess that by the start of 2024 in areas with a 70%+ vax rate there will still be a too-high case rate but a low and steady enough hospitalization/long covid/death rate that very few people or places will still treat it as pandemic conditions. And I suspect that's where it will end up, forever.

The supply chain issues that were foregrounded by the pandemic will last a lot longer though, the supply chain is going to just need a complete restructure.

[adrian_turtle]

What are "pandemic conditions?" We called it "The AIDS epidemic," though it was technically a pandemic (epidemic on more than one continent.) And people went on calling it an epidemic, and taking at least some precautions, even after retrovirals became available at the turn of the century and death rates started going down. I'm not sure when we started referring to that epidemic in the past tense. It "only" killed about 700,000 Americans, over 40 years...there hasn't been time to make 750,428 quilts in less than 2 years.

[conuly]

Note: AIDS definitely still is a "global epidemic". Many people cannot afford treatment, or believe in lots of stupid folk remedies instead of medicine even if they *can* afford treatment.

[adrian_turtle]

Yeah. That's part of what I was thinking.

[silveradept]

The pandemic will still be with us next year, and probably not controlled well enough, but I suspect all of our local authorities will have decided that they've done all they could to get people vaccinated and now it's just better if the people who still refuse catch it and Darwin themselves (or the faction that believes only some people deserve to live and thrive will take power and declare that no precautions are necessary.)

[marahmarie]

Aaaaand nothing could be more short-sighted as I know someone who's had it three times and have heard/read stories of others having it multiple times, as well.

Not to mention one's super-duper immunity from COVID can wane over any number of factors: *anything* that reduces your immune response, and as little as "stress and/or anxiety" can do that, aging, mental health disorders, the beginnings of an autoimmune disorder or chronic illness or worse....the only truly super-duper immunity is having had COVID *and* having both shots *and* getting the booster. But even at that, all of the above factors can still lower one's level of protection.

[dragonyphoenix]

I believe we're calling it "endemic" now even though in Allegheny county the new cases rate is more than twice what it was last year. ;-(