OMG IT WAS SO HOT TODAY

[conuly]

Summer, am I right?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

How Israel defies drought

A map of what every state would be if it were a country

Bad News: Notorious Invasive Worm Just Found in U.S.

Spider-Man is back and he's black but not in Hollywood

The Demand for Sand is so High There are Illegal Sand Mining Operations (I posted about this a while back, I know, but it's still fascinating to me. WE ARE LITERALLY SELLING SAND TO THE ARABS.)

Modern humans and Neanderthals 'interbred in Europe'

A condom that changes colour when it comes into contact with STIs has been invented by a group of school pupils. (Not sure how practical this is. Is this REALLY how you want to find out you or your partner has an STD?)

Thousands of Guinea malaria cases go untreated amid Ebola fears

This is what happened when Australia introduced tight gun controls

CDC confirms red eyes at the pool are caused by urine, not chlorine

Fake quotes run rampant among GOP candidates

Jeb Bush Surprised How Easily Stance On Confederate Flag Set Him Apart From Other Republican Candidates

A black man threatens whites and it's labeled terrorism. But not when a white man kills blacks

Deal Is Near on Far-Reaching Reforms at Rikers, Including a Federal Monitor

The Prison Doors Open And You’re Released. You Have No Money Or Transportation. Now What?

Secret World War II Chemical Experiments Tested Troops By Race


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Greece defends 'harsh' reforms it promised creditors

U.S. will not prosecute families for paying hostage ransom

Islamic State fight requires new tactics: Iraqi commanders

US confirms it will place 250 tanks in eastern Europe to counter Russian threat

Moving ever closer to a new Cold War

NATO head says alliance to more than double rapid response force size

Pakistan heatwave: Death toll crosses 700 people in Sindh

Hungary suspends EU rule on asylum seekers

Taliban has a major northern Afghan city within its grasp for the first time since 2001

In Taliban's new attacks, a message to the Islamic State

Concern mounts over rights abuses in regional fight against Boko Haram

Comments

[zhelana]

Regarding the Australian article, the suicide rate and gun violence rate went down, but the reported rapes went up 29%. Also, non gun violence including homicide and assault/battery went up. Thanks, I'll keep the guns.

[conuly]

You know, reported rapes is always a tricky issue. You're never sure if reporting increased because incidence increased, or because people feel safer reporting their rapes. (This is even worse in places like the US where, until recently, rape of males didn't count. So yeah, once that rule changed the FBI noticed a small spike in rapes. Duh.)

[zhelana]

Even if there was a HUGE 5% increase in how many people reported their rapes, it doesnt explain a 29% increase.

[conuly]

Is rape in Australia really so different from in the US, though? In the US, most rapes involve an intoxicated person. I'm not seeing how guns come into that equation at all. If somebody is passed out, they can't shoot you one way or another.

[zhelana]

You have failed to explain the 29% increase in rapes as soon as gun control happened. Hand waving it away doesn't make it any less real.

[conuly]

No, it doesn't - but correlation doesn't equal causation. I have no idea why rape reporting might have increased. That doesn't mean that I think it has anything to do with increased gun control. Using that logic, I might easily claim that global warming has to do with the decline in pirates, or that autism has to do with MMRs, or that the age of Miss America has to do with the number of murders by steam. There's a whole website devoted to spurious correlations, actually, and some of them would be convincing if you just looked at the charts.

Weapons are used in just 2% of sexual assaults in Australia. Whatever caused this increase, guns or the lack of guns aren't it.

Did you know that when a man joins the US military, his risk of being raped increases by a factor of ten? Obviously there's quite a lot of guns hanging around the military, but that doesn't do one thing to stop the rape. Should I conclude from this that being around guns increases the risk of rape? Or should I acknowledge that rape is a little more complicated than a simple matter of who has weapons and what sort of weapons they have?

[zhelana]

Correlation doesn't mean causation, but it still provides a huge shining arrow that demands explanation. I feel like I'm talking to this guy right now: https://xkcd.com/552/

Weapons being used in 2% of sexual assaults only means whether the assailant had a weapon. It says nothing about whether the victim shot him or not. Furthermore, that's NOW after the draconian gun control laws were passed. It says nothing of what was happening in 1995.

Actually, there aren't really a lot of guns hanging around in the military. They lock them up most of the time, and on a lot of bases you aren't allowed to concealed carry. If anything, that case proves my point - take away the guns and you increase rape.

[conuly]

Several correlations start to indicate something. A single one? No, not so much. (Unless you want to "explain" why everything under the sun correlates with people dying by getting tangled in their bedsheets every year, that is.)

If you can show me that rapes are higher in most places with stricter gun control than in places without, then that might be compelling. And while you dig up that data, I'm going to finish my chapter. Edit: I'll get you started. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics

I can't sort this chart by "strictness of gun control", but I notice that Japan - which has very strict gun control - has a vanishingly small number of rape reports compared to the US, and that the UK - which has stricter gun control than the US - has about half as many reported rapes. I don't know the relative "how controlled are their guns?" ranking for most nations off the top of my head.

Weapons being used in 2% of sexual assaults only means whether the assailant had a weapon. It says nothing about whether the victim shot him or not.

Do you know this to be the case, or are you assuming?

[eofs.livejournal.com]

Yeah, it must have reached 18º! One of the hottest days of summer so far.

[conuly]

18.

Double it = 36.

Take away 1/10 = 32.

Add 32... 64.

Really? Ugh, we spent all day in the 80s today. (Actually, it's a mild summer for the end of June and I can only hope it stays that way.)

[eofs.livejournal.com]

Well my tongue was embedded firmly in cheek vis-a-vis that being unbearably hot. It's pleasant, if rather warm to be walking to work in with a heavy rucksack and carrying a fleece (because office temperatures obey no known laws of physics) and coat (because rain).

That said, the temperature I gave was true - and it really is one of the hottest days we've had this year. Summer's sort of making vague attempts at arriving, but nothing concerted yet. Which given that it's nearly July... we might just not be getting summer this year. Again.